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Autor Wątek: The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task.  (Przeczytany 841 razy)
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« : Grudzień 27, 2019, 07:16:52 »

The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task. Jeff Green Jersey . The people responsible for creating the thirty team schedules have to take into account things like venue availability, travel burden, associated costs of travel, and competitive balance, all while trying to squeeze 1,230 games into a seven-month window. One of the things I’ve always found most interesting is how the league attempts to mitigate the number of back-to-back situations (not so eloquently referred to as “schedule losses” in NHL and NBA circles), a considerable slice of the league’s larger fight with competitive balance. To the league’s credit, Dirk Hoag’s work suggests that the league does try to schedule a comparable number of back-to-back situations for every franchise. Now, the eyeball test has long been damning of team performance on the second-half of back-to-backs, and I think that’s largely why the league has really made a concerted effort to balance the number of schedule losses around the league. The data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms, considerably so when those back-to-backs come on the road. Seven years of available data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms. Below, I have compiled Score-Adjusted Fenwick%, 5-on-5 Goal%, and Regulation/OT Win% for teams in back-to-back situations. They are slotted next to your league-average rates, to illustrate the drop-off between the two. (Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 unblocked shot attempts, weighted for score, comparing results to league averages based on game score.) The Value of Rest Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% Back-to-Back Home 51.0% 51.0% 53.0% All Home 52.0% 52.0% 56.0% Back-to-Back Road 47.0% 46.0% 41.0% All Road 48.0% 49.0% 44.0% So, teams without rest against teams with rest of ranging length are going to underperform – we see a three percentage drop-off in regulation/overtime win percentage for both home and road teams, which really is the smoking gun. It’s also hard to miss that possession and goal metrics slide in both states, too. Home teams drop a full percentage point on both fronts. Road teams drop a percentage point in possession rates, and three percentage points in goal rates. But, back-to-back situations – or “schedule losses” -- aren’t the only instance where a team is disadvantaged. The theory isn’t just that teams devoid of rest are at a disadvantage. It’s that teams disproportionately rested to the opposition are at a disadvantage, in which back-to-back situations are only a small part of a large sample. Let’s change gears and turn to rest differentials. We can pull data for how teams perform with three days favorable rest, two days favorable rest, one day favorable rest, and so forth. If our theory holds true, performance – be it by possession rates, goal rates, or win rates – should deteriorate as rest becomes less advantageous, and travel becomes more frequent. Over the same seven years of data, here’s how home teams performed over various rest differentials. Home Team Rest Advantage 2007-2014 Rest Advantage Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% 3 or more day deficit 50.9% 48.3% 52.3% 2-day deficit 51.1% 50.6% 54.9% 1-day deficit 51.6% 51.9% 54.2% Even 51.3% 52.0% 55.3% One-day advantage 52.1% 53.4% 58.9% Two-day advantage 52.6% 54.0% 58.3% 3 or more day advantage 51.9% 51.7% 51.6% I think this graph is about as telling as it gets. As you increase a home team’s rest advantage, their possession rates, goal rates, and win rates all spike. The inverse, of course, is true for road teams – as they see rest become more unfavourable, possession rates decline, goal rates decline, and win rates decline. Again, this gets very much back to what our eyes tell us – that teams who have rest advantages generally play a better hockey game, and teams that are fatigued generally play a worse hockey game. More importantly, it signifies that not all games are created equal. A home team with a two-game rest disadvantage is only expected to control 51.09% of the play, 50.58% of the 5-on-5 goals, and win 54.87% of the games. A home team with a two-game rest advantage should be held to significantly higher standards: on average, they should control 52.64% of play, score 54.04% of the goals, and win 58.25% of the hockey games. It seems certain to me that the league would be privy to this sort of data and reluctant to put teams into positions where they are regularly at a rest disadvantage, but it’s still an important topic that should be considered when forecasting future outcomes. Rightfully, analysts spend a lot of time talking up the importance of home-ice advantage – the data bears this advantage out. However, this data suggests that rest is another critical, albeit less appreciated, factor for teams and associated performance. Jeff Hornacek Jersey . - Justin Turner is at his best with runners in scoring position, and he delivered again in a big spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Aaron James Jersey .K. Subban and Matt Duchene will be the two skaters sitting out the teams opening game. https://www.cheapjazzonline.com/1238e-justin-wright-foreman-jersey-jazz.html .Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have been neck and neck all season, with 17 points separating the rivals and double points on offer for the race.Tensions between them have spilled over during the campaign and the pairs fragile relationship was evident during Thursdays pre-race news conference, when Rosberg goaded Hamilton by advising him to race cleanly.The Metropolitan Division-champion Pittsburgh Penguins will close out their regular season on Sunday night in a home matchup with the Ottawa Senators. The Penguins will head into the postseason as the second seed and will have home-ice advantage against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Pittsburgh was coming off back-to-back shootout wins before suffering a 4-3 loss in overtime to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday. Defenseman Kris Letang scored on a backhander with 36.8 seconds left in regulation, but the Flyers won it on Mark Streits goal with 2:50 to play in overtime. James Neal totaled a goal and two assists for the Penguins, while Jussi Jokinen also tallied. Marc-Andre Fleury ended up with only 17 saves in defeat. With nothing on the line, the Penguins sat defenseman Brooks Orpik and forward Chris Kunitz. Several skaters also could get a rest tonight, though captain Sidney Crosby still wants his team to focus on playing a good game. "I think just to follow up this performance from today. As a whole, we want to feel good about our game," Crosby said of todays finale. "I think there were some things from today that I think were good. For a game that doesnt move us anywhere, it didnt have a lot of bearing on us, we came with the right attitude, the right mindset." Letang, meanwhilee, scored his first goal since Jan. Ben Poquette Jersey. . 23 in his second game since returning from a 10-week absence while recovering from a stroke. "Im just trying to get back into it," Letang said. "The result is disappointing, but I think we played a good game overall. I think if we go into the playoffs that way, were going to win games." The Senators will not be going into the playoffs, but can end the campaign with a season-high fifth straight victory. They matched their previous best of four consecutive wins with Saturdays 1-0 decision over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Craig Anderson stopped 28 shots for his fourth shutout of the season and 26th of his career. Jason Spezza had the only goal of the game, blasting a one-timer into the net during a second-period power play for his 23rd goal of the season. "Were playing games that dont mean much in the standings as far as getting us into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, which is what its all about," said Ottawa head coach Paul MacLean. "But at the same time, finishing our home schedule like we are is way better." Ottawa wrapped the campaign with an 18-17-6 record at home. The Sens are 18-14-8 on the road. The Senators have lost four of their previous five meetings with the Penguins as well as five of their past six trips to Pittsburgh. ' ' '
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